(But first, a friend of mine was not interested in voting for either candidate and decided to do a write-in for “God.” God is very important in his life and felt our country needs God now more than ever. He, however, decided against it because both candidates would likely think he was voting for them:)

Getting slightly more serious, I thought it would be interesting to discuss the options of what might happen to hiring in Automotive Quality in either outcome. As we all know, the automotive industry is coming off another record sales year. From a perspective of hiring, my experience (25 years in Automotive Quality) has been very similar to the stock market; we are stuck in a range, and things are going sideways. The future is always slippery to predict, especially with this crazy election. Start out by asking yourself, “Does this feel like we are in a bubble?” The answer most of you will give is ‘no’ even though we’ve had record sales. It doesn’t feel like the industry is over extended. Most of this production was still a catch-up game from the tsunami from 2008-2010.

The OESA Supplier Barometer Index has provided a pulse-check on the business outlook of the organization’s 430 member companies every quarter since 2006. The October query put the North American supply base with a score of 48 out of 100 on the index — down from a 50 in July. This seemingly small drop puts the industry sector into a “pessimistic” category according to OESA chief economist, Charles Chesbrough. We all have to consider two important statistical facts. First, all markets like to revert to their mean which means we are getting close to a slowdown. Secondly, to confuse things even more, the crowd is usually wrong about imminent upturns or downturns. The crowd, however, is right in the middle of any market move. Top stock market investors (Larry Williams) look for entries when the mood is pessimistic among so-called experts. With the pessimism is it possible to go higher. Sure it is. So what is happening on the ground right now from my perspective in the hiring trenches?

I have not had any Automotive Quality requisitions placed on hold or canceled due to the election nor due to a slowdown on masse. I clearly saw a substantial slowdown in 2007 and even pulled my money out of the stock market in August of 2007 and took a sabbatical from recruiting in automotive (Even a broken clock is right twice a day). I am not seeing that at the moment. With the election so close, here are my thoughts:

#1. Hillary wins. Based on the polls this is the most likely scenario. It is also the ‘safe’ bet for things to go sideways in the stock market and our industry. Lower gas prices have saved our industry from the feared downturn over the past year. These huge rising health care costs are going to have a significant drag on the economy (my monthly premium in Florida as a small business owner went from $374 per month to $650 in 2017). You can’t tax your way into growth. Unless another huge discovery occurs like the internet under Bill Clinton, I see anemic growth for the foreseeable future in this scenario. If you are excellent and passionate about Automotive Quality, you will be just fine. (And, make sure to call me if you are ready to make a move up!)

#2. Trump wins. This situation has a huge impact on us all because of the huge trade involved between Canada and Mexico. A scrapping of NAFTA, in the short term, means that everyone will hold back on hiring until we know what is going to happen. Similar to BREXIT, this is not a doomsday scenario necessarily. The stock market, hiring managers and every human on the plants just hates uncertainty. I don’t think many would argue that Trump would negotiate a better trade deal for the USA. The question is at what cost? This uncertainty is why I don’t believe he will win.

So, who am I voting for on Tuesday? Neither. I’m fiscally conservative and socially liberal and of the opinion that neither of these candidates is fit to become President. I am voting a ‘write-in’ for the first time…and it doesn’t feel very good.

All the Best in 2017 and GO AUTOMOTIVE QUALITY!